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Subject: Re: SuperForex - Superforex.com Mon Jun 19, 2017 10:40 am
Special gathering in Malaysia
On Sunday, June 4 we organized a special gathering for our local clients with the help of our Introducing Broker in Malaysia, Abdul Malek Azenan. The meeting was designed to introduce the most important aspects of the wide range of services that SuperForex provides. Some of the topics we covered included our variety of account types available, the best payment systems to use for financial transactions, our many bonuses which help clients to trade with a greater amount of funds than they actually deposit, and many other exclusive promotions that make SuperForex the best broker on the market.
We were glad to see so many of you there. Thank you once again for joining us for this event!
We would like to point out that Mr. Azenan always tries to make time for his clients, so if you have any questions at all, please do not hesitate to contact him - he would be more than happy to set up a meeting at a time that is convenient for you and answer all of your questions about SuperForex in person
Subject: Re: SuperForex - Superforex.com Tue Jun 20, 2017 10:14 am
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Subject: Re: SuperForex - Superforex.com Wed Jun 21, 2017 11:54 am
CAD/JPY: fundamental review and forecast
CAD/JPY rates continues in the frames of a weak downtrend. We could expect more rapid weakening of the Canadian dollar, considering strong pressure for this currency in recent times, due to falling of oil prices. But CAD managed to find support and even strengthened against many currencies due to the statements of the Bank of Canada's representatives. they said about high probability of a rate hike, given continued economic growth. Therefore, increasing of the rates this year, can be considered as almost solved question. Contributed the strengthening of the Canadian dollar disappointing statistics from Japan. Trade balance amounted to only 0.13 T amid expected growth in 0.35 T. Japan's trade deficit widened to JPY 203.4 billion in May while investors were expecting a surplus +43 billion. Growth of exports also do not match with investors' expectations and amounted to only 14.9 percent, while imports increased more than expected - 17.8% vs. expected 14.5 %. The positive thing here is only fact that exports continues to grow for the sixth consecutive month. In the near future, the rates of CAD/JPY will continue depending on the situation on the oil market because oil prices have already continued to test new psychological marks and now it's already less than 44 dollars for barrel CL/WTI. Unlikely volatility will be high until June 30, when we will have a real Canadian-Japanese day: the market will get a lot of important statistics, such as Canada's GDP, the unemployment rate in Japan and the consumer price index PMI. Considering a lot of factors against CAD, the most effective can be considered short deals on the trend, that confirmed with the Stochastics oscillator.
Subject: Re: SuperForex - Superforex.com Thu Jun 22, 2017 11:00 am
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Situation has not changed significantly since the last month. The rates continue in the frames of the weak uptrend. This week, Gold received support thanks to the weak unemployment report in the United States. So investors began to doubt about further tightening in monetary policy and raising the rate, in the near future. Probability of a rate hike in September estimated at only 15%. On the daily chart, we can see lowering of volatility this year. There are no signs of trend change, although it has some basis: political risks in the U.S. decreased. The tense situation around the President D. Trump and his administration, gradually stabilizes; investigations against Trump with perspective of impeachment, unlikely be performed. Thus, the U.S. dollar is not under the pressure as it was before and in the near future, it's free for strengthening. The USD value is depending now on the economic situation in the United States and inflation level. But given the forecasts and current situation in the economy of the US, unlikely the dollar will be able to add significantly in price. During the past three days, gold continued growth. In the short term perspective, Gold can add in the price, within the current range 1240 to 1290 dollars. Therefore, the most optimal would be the deals on the trend upon the short term trading.
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Qatar is still under blockade by Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and two other countries. Can Qatar's economy weather this storm?
A few weeks ago we shed a little bit of light on the current diplomatic crisis in Qatar. It has been essentially blockaded by its neighbouring countries on the grounds of supposedly promoting terrorism and destabilizing the Middle East. This has made it slightly more complicated for Qatar to import and export goods, but as we learned from Qatar’s finance minister, there was no need to worry too much. Or is there?
The countries opposing Qatar are Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Egypt, and Bahrain. They made a list of demands that aim at making Qatar work for better stability in the region. However, the blockaded state has refused to comply, stating that the demands may constitute a violation of international law, reports CNN. In retaliation, the four countries which cut ties with Qatar have showed a determination to step up their measures and increase pressure on Qatar, though the meaning of this is yet unclear.
EUR/JPY Technical Outlook before the Rate Decisions The BOJ's policy rate will push the Yen to rise a little. This week the markets are looking forward to the rate decisions of two important banks - the European Central Bank and the Bank of Japan. This will cause a huge volatility. We will take a look at the instrument most likely to be affected, the EUR/JPY currency pair, and hunt for good opportunities for this week. The EUR/JPY pair recorded its highest levels in 17 months at 130.75 and then it bounced back to trade now at 129.00. It declined last week on the release front as the Eurozone Final CPI edged down to 1.3%, matching the forecast. On Tuesday Germany and the eurozone will release ZEW Economic Sentiments. The pair broke an important support level at the moving average 50 and it’s trading now at an important key area at the upside trend line. We predict it will break the trend line and decline further but we have to wait to see where this candle will close exactly. So, what can we do in the next hours? As we mentioned above, we will wait for a candle close below the trend line below 128.70 and sell the pair, keeping our first target at 127.50 and the second one at 126.20; that's in case the pair breaks the second trend line. This week we have to be careful in our trades because we have important events which will cause high volatility in the market such as a decision from the BOJ regading the policy rate and the press conference for Kuroda, as well as the minimum Bid Rate for the European Central Bank on Thursday.
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The MXN has achieved its April 2016 level, while the USD is losing positions due to the failure of the health care reform.
The rates of the USD/MXN pair continue in the frames of the downtrend which has lasted for more than six months, when the Mexican peso fell as a result of the presidential elections in the USA and D. Trump's anti-immigration protectionist policies openly directed against Mexico. Despite several factors against the Mexican peso, such as perspectives for lowering oil prices and the worsened relations between the U.S. and Mexico, the peso managed to recover its lost positions.
This week the MXN reached the level from April 2016 amid the rising oil prices and the failure of the health care reform in the United States. This points to the inefficiency and weakness of Donald Trump's administration. The failure of the health care reform threatens the further policies of Donald Trump and decreases his popularity in the United States. The US dollar was also negatively impacted by the cautious rhetoric of Yellen about a further tightening the FED policy. Also, amid disappointing data about inflation and retail sales, investors began to doubt whether we would see a further increasing of the interest rate this year.
Our https://superforex.com/economic-calendar includes the most recent and significant economic events, figures, and facts that can influence the currency and financial market in general. Watching events in the news line will allow you to see the nuances of the development of different economic situations, and will also give you an opportunity to catch the market reactions to each development. We hope that our economic calendar will serve as a loyal assistant to each trader making decisions on the Forex market.
The euro continues to take on the USD in a confident bullish movement.
This week we turn our eyes to Europe once more. The economic climate in the European Union seems to be quite heated these days: many reports coming from all around the eurozone are flooding in, and investors are paying close attention to the euro, particularly in the context of the much weaker dollar we’ve been seeing these days.
Earlier today the European Central Bank’s Survey of Professional Forecasters was published. The survey, which is quite important to the ECB and whose results always figure into the decision-making process of the ECB, showed that while there is stable economic growth and a decrease in the unemployment rate, the inflation rate still remains relatively low. As we’ve mentioned before on our blog, the ECB is currently in the midst of a massive stimulus program whose goal is to boost inflation to a healthy level. It appears this level still hasn’t been achieved, despite investors’ hopes that the ECB might be satisfied with the current progress and start turning towards more hawkish policies.
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XAU/USD: Short Review and Forecast The market has been extremely volatile the last few months. Investors are waiting for the results of the FED meeting. The GOLD has good chances to increase in price if the FED doesn't change the rate.
The Gold has been extremely volatile for the last few months. On the H4 chart we can see a large number of different micro trends that continually replace each other every month. This has created uncertainty on the market. Volatility is higher than ever: in just three months, the price varied in the range of 1216-1294 dollars. Overall, the trend looks flat, but with a huge range.
This week, the price achieved a monthly maximum, but decreased a bit because investors are awaiting the results from the Federal Reserve meeting held today. The Fed meeting will show if the interest rate is going to be increased or not. Investors suppose that interest rates are unlikely to be increased before December. Inflation in the United States was lower than expected for the fourth month in a row. Other economic indicators also do not impress the market. The Gold also has been rising in price due to the failure of the health care reform and the weakening of the USD.
Given that the Federal Reserve rate hike is unlikely in the near future, we expect a further increasing of Gold value, after the price correction. This also confirmed by the Stochastic oscillator, which indicates that the current rates are in the oversold zone. A further increase of the Gold's value will lead to the formation of a steady uptrend. Therefore, the deals to BUY can be considered as the most effective.
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Amid the ruins of the Republicans' attempts to repeal and replace Obamacare, the USD is the true victim.
While we have been focusing on other regions in our most recent articles, one detail often popped up in our analysis: the fact that the American dollar has weakened. Why did that happen? That’s what we’ll try to find out today.
Now, if you take a look back to 2015 and 2016, you’d see the dollar overtaking most major currencies, making consistent gains as the US economy was doing splendidly. The USD experienced volatility around the 2016 Presidential elections, but after Trump’s win investors decided to back him up in hopes that his protectionist policies and focus on infrastructure would boost the economy. As a result, the dollar ended 2016 at record highs and at the turn of 2017 people were already talking of possible parity with the euro, with various temporal prognoses, most commonly by the year’s end.
However, we are now seven months into 2017 and six months into Trump’s presidency, and things are not looking good. Trump has failed repeatedly to find support for his policy-making, and save for his promise to revive the coal industry, he hasn’t achieved much from what was on his campaign’s agenda. Investors have been continuously changing their expectations of his presidency with every passing day, and have little to no confidence in him right now, since polls are showing massive losses in Trump’s popularity among American citizens. This led to a lack of confidence in the American dollar too; the USD has suffered losses, while safe-haven trading instruments such as gold have regained some of their popularity in recent times.
The most recent political fiasco of Trump’s administration is undoubtedly the failed healthcare reform. Republicans have been attempting to get rid of the Affordable Care Act (commonly known as Obamacare) even before it was enacted years ago. Now that they finally have the upper hand in the Senate, it is astonishing just how poorly this was handled. Republicans kept details about their reform secret; the President expressed support for the bill without having seen it, and later switched his position, calling it “mean.” After a series of failed votes (including from Republican senators), the massively unpopular bill failed. It was then replaced with a plan to simply repeal Obamacare and return things to the way they were. In light of this, however, an estimate of 15 million people would have been left without insurance next year, and even more in the future. Last night even the vote to repeal Obamacare failed.
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After the depressed period we have an upward trend again and preconditions for further growth, given the long-term perspectives for increasing demand.
Between May and the end of June the market was depressed. Oil fell in price from $51 to $42. It seemed that the falling of oil prices is unstoppable. The oversupply of crude oil, the increase of oil extraction volumes even amid OPEC countries and the growth of oil reserves in the United States created a desperate situation, whereby market participants were unable to control the market and achieve a balance between demand and supply.
However, in July oil began to recover due to the reduction of oil stocks in the United States and the reduction of drilling activity. In addition, the oil recovered in price amid the long-term forecasts which show perspectives for growth in the demand for oil, although some analysts disagree with that. Nevertheless, given the recent data such as the index of business activity in China from Caixin, which marks the increasing of business activity, there are good preconditions for an increasing demand for raw materials in China. The decreasing in oil reserves in the United States will ease the pressure on the oil market for the next few months.
CL/WTI, H4 In the near future the market will focus on the upcoming OPEC meeting, which will take place on August 7-8. The volatility over the past few months has remained very high, but it's decreasing. We can expect for sure a continuation of the rates in the frames of the current uptrend. After the price correction, prices may recover to the level of 50-51 dollars. The Stochastic oscillator also indicates a good time to open the deals to BUY on the trend.
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The fallout from Brexit is a deteriorating economic climate in the UK, and the British pound shows it.
Despite the unexpected strength of economic growth in Europe, the struggles of the United Kingdom continue. After the devastating losses incurred immediately before and after the Brexit referendum vote last summer and the disastrous elections results earlier this year, Britain and its currency still find themselves in a tight spot.
Yesterday we heard from the Bank of England, who this time announced that they are taking a more pessimistic prognosis of the UK’s economy and downgraded their forecasts for economic growth for 2017 and 2018 for the second time this summer. As a result, the British pound sterling suffered losses versus the American dollar of almost 1%.
The Bank of England’s stance is likely rooted in the disappointing wages. Since the pound slumped, goods imported to the United Kingdom naturally cost more for Brits, essentially driving their purchasing power lower. The BoE expects this problem to worsen in the future and is somewhat apprehensive regarding wage growth.
Bank of England governor Mark Carney expressed a concern for businesses who find it additionally difficult to invest amid the political struggle inside of the United Kingdom and the problematic negotiations with the European Union regarding Brexit.
The United Kingdom is currently lagging behind its European counterparts, and Carney expects an even slower economic growth. Needless to say, the bank chose not to increase interest rates yet, in hopes of stimulating the economy.
Despite the political discord within the United Kingdom due to Theresa May’s party failing to achieve a definitive majority in the preliminary parliamentary elections she called and the lack of strong British leadership that resulted from that, the UK has proceeded with the EU negotiations. However, even though negotiators have met several times now, not much has been decided, especially since the EU is putting pressure on the UK to meet its critical demands regarding immigration and payment.
Overall, the situation seems really unclear right now. British politicians are not helping much, as they provide contradictory statements from time to time, indicating the British government is not on the same page. The British pound has already dropped 13% since the Brexit vote, and due to the lack of proper leadership and the absence of clarity regarding the negotiations with the European Union we expect the GBP to continue its decrease versus major currencies.
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The support line is moving down and the upward trend is weakening while the market is waiting for the RBNZ decision about the rate change and monetary policy.
Since May the rates of the NZD/USD had been in the frames of an upward trend which is based on the weakened U.S. dollar. Now the market is almost frozen while waiting for the RBNZ's interest rate decision and the monetary policy report of the Central Bank.
In the beginning of the month the NZD rate reached the level of May 2015, but then began decreasing to more reasonable levels because the value of the NZD seems overrated, given the worsening economic situation in the country and unconvincing economic statistics.
Overall, we can definitely say there is a lack of incentives for the NZD to strengthen. In addition, the RBNZ has repeatedly stated that they're not interested in a strong currency rate. Investors are confident that the RBNZ will leave interest rates unchanged. Therefore, the probability of a further decreasing of the NZD is very high. The only thing we can expect that can help the NZD to remain at the same high level would be a significant easing in the monetary policy of the RBNZ. We can even expect some price hikes during the period of news from the RBNZ tonight.
This is a rare case when we have to ignore all oscillators (Stochastic, MACD, RSI), which unanimously indicate a signal about the oversold zone and a good moment for the deals to BUY. Because of the given the fundamental factors, there is a high probability for a further decreasing of the NZD/USD rate to the level of 0.72 USD. The support line has already started to shift down, so the deals to SELL seem much more effective. Nevertheless, it is too early to speak about the trend reversal, but it's safe to talk about the weakening of the current uptrend.
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Fri Apr 06, 2018 2:31 pm by Superforex
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